College Lottery?

Chaerin Kang
1 day ago
3 min read

By Melvin Najarian Dec. 12, 2025

Senior folklore claims that the final step of the admissions process involves a dramatic drumroll and an admissions officer sitting back in a large brown leather chair, flipping a two-sided coin: “Accept” on one side, “You are Not Welcome” on the other. Of course, no established university operates this way, but to many students, it sometimes feels like they might. The truth is, admission outcomes reflect less randomness; what feels like “luck” is often the result of the unequal advantages that certain students carry before and during the application process.

“A lot of my older friends looked amazing on paper: perfect GPA, perfect test scores, expensive counselors, and they still got denied from their dream universities. I think at a certain point the stats of the student become irrelevant and they are just there to prove you are a ‘good student,’ not who you are,” Senior Rihito Yamaguchi said.

To many students, the process can seem unpredictable because even exceptionally strong applicants are rejected. One well- known example, as ABC reports, is Silicon Valley student Stanley Zhong, who had a near perfect academic record, a 1590 SAT score, funded his own startup, yet was turned away from almost every top and some mid-tier schools he applied to. Despite a resume that demonstrates his competence, he received 16 rejection letters from universities ranging from MIT and Stanford to Berkeley, Cal Poly San Luis Obispo, the University of Wisconsin and the University of Washington.

Cases like this feed the perception that outcomes are based on luck. Yet in reality, things are not random—access to private counselors shapes who rises to the top of the applicant pool, driving an increasingly unequal admission system. Admissions become more competitive each year, and the students who thrive the most in the cut throat environment tend to be those with disproportionate advantages long before senior year.

In recent years, there has been a dramatic rise in private college consulting, an industry valued at around $3 billion, according to Marketplace. These firms offer one-on-one guidance that goes far beyond what school counselors can generally provide, including personalized essay coaching, application strategy planning, interview preparation and tips on how to build a competitive extracurricular profile. Although some families see these services as an investment in their child’s future, it demonstrates inequity by providing privileged students access to expert strategies that others simply cannot afford. According to The Merionite, the advantage of these services is clear: it reports that students working with IvyWise, a major consulting firm, had a 40.8% admission rate to Cornell University, compared to the school’s overall rate of just 8.87%.

Also, these independent educational consultants (IEC) typically begin working with students during their sophomore year, just as they start touring colleges. In recent years, families have begun hiring them as early as middle school, as reported by CNBC. These programs involve long-term coaching that shapes every part of a student’s academics and extracurricular profile. According to Dr. Katherine Cohen, the founder of IvyWise, the financial commitment can be substantial, with some parents spending $100,000 to $200,000 depending on the company and the packages they choose.

“Leland is one of many highly competitive and highly affluent Bay Area schools. Many students, myself included, have the luxury of accessing private college counselors, SAT prep and other academic opportunities that others students cannot. In the coming months, many of these privileged students will be offered spots at the nation’s top academic institutions not because they demonstrate extraordinary merit, but because they can afford extraordinary opportunities. If colleges claim to judge applicants by their merit, they must take larger strides towards offering all students an equitable chance to demonstrate their potential,” Senior Advi Wehzan said.

The debate on whether college admissions are a matter of luck often overlook the uncomfortable reality that the system is shaped far more by structural advantage than by randomness. To make the admission process more fair, universities must expand support for students who cannot afford outside help. When seniors open their decision letters, they should remember that this is a system where many deserving students are admitted but equally deserving students are not.