Iran at a Breaking Point

1 day ago
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By Melvin Najarian Feb. 11, 2026

For over four decades, Iran’s government has ruled through oppression and human rights abuses. Since December 2025, economic collapse and collective anger have spurred nationwide demonstrations, pushing Iranians to exercise open resistance. What began as protests over inflation in Tehran’s bazaars quickly turned into one of the most direct challenges to the Islamic Republic since the 2022 Women Life Freedom movement. By Dec. 30, 2025, more than 500 demonstrations occurred across 31 provinces, with the number only growing, per France 24.

“Historically, the regime has faced recurring cycles of resistance driven by its own oppression, including the enforcement of mandatory veiling, police brutality, the suppression of students and widespread unemployment. Each time the government suppresses these protests, believing it has eliminated dissent, another uprising emerges years later, even more powerful,” Dr. Abbas Milani, Director of Hamid and Christina Moghadam of Iranian Studies at Stanford University, said.

According to Milani, this year's protests tell a different story than past demonstrations. The 2009 Green Movement focused mostly on the disputed election, for example, as people took to the streets simply calling for the government to “count my vote.” By contrast, the 2025 protests reveal clear fractures within the regime itself. Milani points to a rare public intervention by former Prime Minister Mir-Hossein Mousavi, who lost the disputed 2009 election and has remained under house arrest for 14 years for political opposition. On Jan. 29, Mousavi, a former key leader of Iran’s Islamic Republic, publicly urged the military to stand down. This rare call from someone who once supported the regime shows signs that the government’s control is weakening.

“The call now is not only for the fall of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Hosseini Khamenei, but also for the end of the regime itself. People in Iran, including prisoners, have openly declared the regime finished, naming Khamenei as the criminal responsible for the deaths. That kind of open criticism was unthinkable before,” Milani said.

While the years of oppression set the scene for unrest, the collapsing economy catalyzed the 2025 protests. According to Iran International, protests intensified as the Iranian rial reached an unprecedented low on Jan. 6, trading at about 1.47 million rials to the U.S. dollar. Economic conditions worsened after Iran’s central bank eliminated its preferential exchange rate on Jan. 1, triggering a surge in the price of basic goods. According to the AP News, the annual inflation rate reached 42.2% in December 2025, with food prices rising 72% and healthcare costs increasing by 50% compared to the previous year.

A report from the Intelligence Organization of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps revealed that 36,500 people were killed by security forces during the protests between Jan. 8 and 9. However, as information is limited, it is entirely possible the death toll is closer to 60,000.

Despite horrific violence and government attempts to strike fear, the Iranian diaspora has become more mobilized than ever. Thousands of Iranians abroad have been writing to their elected officials, urging stronger action against the Iranian regime. Iranians abroad organized at least 168 demonstrations across 30 countries and 73 cities, turning domestic unrest into a global movement of support for their fellow compatriots. On Jan. 21 and Feb. 1, over 100,000 people gathered in Toronto, Canada, for demonstrations in solidarity with the Iranians.

With the regime weakening, the central question that follows is what could come after the current government. One of the more popular alternatives, supported and chanted by members of the Iranian diaspora and protesters in Tehran, is Prince Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran’s former shah. One of the most prominent voices advocating for the Iranian people, the Prince has recently increased his public presence by calling for coordinated demonstrations and presenting himself as ready to help lead a transition. According to NBC News, opinion polling conducted in Iran over the last three years shows that Reza Pahlavi commands more support than any other opposition figure: roughly one-third of Iranians strongly support Pahlavi, while a similar share opposes him.

“I do not argue that the Prince should be Iran’s future king or president. I am arguing that he is the most suitable symbol of a democratic transition. For the Prince to lead, he must return to his message of the last 40 years—that he is a unifying force meant to bring everyone together to create a broad coalition, just like how his grandfather, Reza Shah, did,” Milani said.

Throughout the protests, United States President Donald Trump condemned Iran’s human rights violations, threatening Iran with military intervention, though many question his true intent. The UK has also pressured Iran for its violent protest crackdowns; on Jan. 13, UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper announced plans to introduce sanctions that would target Iran’s key sectors such as finance, energy, transport and software.

“The U.S. should consider limited intervention in Iran, but only with transparency. Ideally, we would support protesters enough to topple Iran’s violent regime and then withdraw quickly to ensure that we do not become an occupying power. History repeatedly shows that Western imperialism is not much better than an authoritarian government. If one dictatorship is simply replaced by another, intervention will have only caused harm, not freedom,” Sophomore Bilbrone Solomon said.

Milani argues that if the West truly wishes to help the Iranian people, they must reject military intervention and instead take a peaceful approach, such as freezing the Iranian government’s assets abroad, pushing the regime out of international organizations and closing its embassies.