El Niño: The Little Boy That Won't Cool Down
By Jayden Kim Nov. 4, 2026
Driven by warming global temperatures, a powerful phenomenon is taking shape in the Pacific Ocean. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts an 81% chance of a very strong El Niño event, with a 97% probability it will persist through early spring 2027. Ocean surface temperatures are projected to exceed 2oC above average, and this climate pattern is set to bring extreme weather worldwide, making California’s incoming winter much wetter. Temperatures are forecasted to be highest in the history of El Niño documentation, which dates back to 1950.
Normally, Pacific trade winds blow west along the equator, pushing warm water to Asia while cold water rises from below. During El Niño, weakening trade winds push warm water eastward toward the American west coast, trapping heat in the upper Pacific ocean and atmosphere while shifting global jet streams. Consequently, the northern U.S. and Canada become drier and warmer while the U.S. Gulf Coast and Southeast go through wetter, flood-prone seasons.
This year, Weather West states that Pacific surface temperatures are becoming higher than ever, rising about 2.4°C higher than usual as of mid-October compared to the record 2.3°C. Temperatures are only expected to rise after this, being forecasted to eventually peak around 3.7°C higher than normal in December. Generally, temperatures at least 2°C above average cause an event to be classified as a “super” El Niño.
This major shift followed a La Niña phase that lasted from September 2025 to March. La Niña, the reverse of El Niño, occurs every 3 to 5 years and warms the south. This transition from a La Niña to a strong El Niño is rare due to cold Pacific waters and a shallow thermocline—a layer in the ocean where temperature drastically drops—present during La Niña. Both factors make it difficult for heat to move from the Pacific and impede atmospheric interactions necessary for El Niño.
To track El Niño, scientists use data on surface temperature and trade winds collected from satellites, which is combined with data from boats, buoys and monitoring stations to understand oceanic and atmospheric temperatures. The last super El Niño occurred in 2015-16. As a result, severe droughts and wildfires triggered a humanitarian crisis in southeast Asia and Southern Africa.
“I am not afraid since I am in a safe position, but I am worried about possible environmental effects of extreme weather. Flooding could hurt ecosystems, destroy habitats and cause food and water shortages,” Junior Calvin Sridhara said.
The environmental consequences are widespread and affect various regions around the world. Ocean warming in areas like California, Indonesia and Australia triggers coral bleaching and reduces phytoplankton levels, disrupting marine food webs and collapsing local fisheries. These two events can lead to large die-offs of marine organisms, ruining reef ecosystems. On land, extreme rainfall threatens agriculture by flooding and property damage,and increases in monsoon frequency and flooding affect habitats or kill terrestrial organisms.
“My family has not been affected by El Niño, but the resulting floods and landslides could be pretty destructive for us. We will likely prepare an emergency backpack and avoid certain areas,” Sophomore Ayaan Gupta said.
El Niño, despite its name of “Little Boy,” refuses to stop growing. Temperatures and weather are forecasted to grow more volatile and cause damage in people’s lives. The threat posed to human, marine and terrestrial ecosystems necessitates further preparation efforts to protect organisms from losing homes and habitats.
About the Contributors
Jayden Kim
Staff Writer
Jayden Kim is a sophomore at Leland High School currently working as a Staff Writer for The Charger Account. He generally likes to practice violin, relax in his room, or study math problems whenever he has free time. One of his favorite pastimes, along with those mentioned, is to enjoy time with friends online or outside.
Cindy Lu
Artist
Cindy Lu is currently a sophomore at Leland High School, and is focused on creating artworks for The Charger Account. She claims that, if not for her "crippling gambling addiction," she could be much more productive. She is usually seen out on walks, hanging out with friends, or at a boba shop.
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